Trump’s policies to reshape Asian supply chains in 2025
Donald Trump’s return to the White House is set to bring substantial changes to Asian trade dynamics in 2025. His «America First» agenda, characterized by protectionist trade policies, higher tariffs, and reshore manufacturing, is likely to affect China and its neighboring economies. Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports, ranging from 10-20% on most goods and up to 60% on Chinese products, could further strain trade relations between the US and China.
During Trump’s first term, escalating trade restrictions led many businesses to diversify their supply chains away from China. This trend is expected to accelerate, increasing the appeal of alternative manufacturing hubs in Asia. For example, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand are well-positioned to receive increased investment as companies seek to reduce reliance on China.
South Korea and India are emerging as key players in global trade realignments. South Korea’s advanced manufacturing capabilities enable it to absorb high-tech production shifts, while India’s expanding manufacturing sector and favorable trade policies make it an attractive sourcing destination.
However, Asian countries also face significant risks. Blanket tariffs on key exports such as electronics, apparel, and automotive parts could disrupt trade flows. Less diversified economies such as Indonesia and Cambodia are particularly vulnerable, as their reliance on US demand makes them more susceptible to export declines.
What 2025’s new alliances mean for shippers
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The Gemini Cooperation, formed by Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk, will launch in February 2025, introducing a combined capacity of 3.7 million TEUs. Operating across 26 mainline services and 32 shuttle routes, Gemini will focus on key east-west trade lanes. Its hub-and-spoke model will utilize large ships to transport goods to major hubs, with smaller vessels distributing cargo to final destinations.
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Following Hapag-Lloyd’s departure, the Premier Alliance now includes ONE, Yang Ming,and HMM, collectively offering a fleet capacity of 3.5 million TEUs. Around 65% of this capacity will be allocated to the alliance’s shared services, such as Transatlantic routes, while the remainder used for independent operations or vessel-sharing agreements.
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MSC, now the largest container carrier with a fleet capacity of 5.7 million TEUs, hasopted out of traditional alliances. Following the dissolution of the 2M Alliance with Maersk in January 2023, MSC is pursuing selective VSAs and slot exchanges with carriers, including members of the Premier Alliance and ZIM.
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The Ocean Alliance has remained stable, with its members CMA CGM, COSCO/OOCL, and Evergreen extending their partnership through 2032.
Shippers face a more complex carrier landscape in 2025, requiring careful consideration of network designs and service structures. Beyond cost and transit times, factors such as route reliability, alliance stability, and risk exposure will play a critical role in decision-making.
